How Realistic is the Idea of a State Seceding?

In a world where a poll in 2021 showed that “52% of Trump voters and 41% of Biden voters favored red/blue states seceding from the union,” it’s not a surprise that the talk about secession isn’t just limited to social media websites. On the contrary, there are allegedly significant secession movements in six different states:

In one of the stranger stories we've needed to cover during an already bizarre presidential administration, conditions around the country have apparently deteriorated to the point where six states are currently considering seceding from the union and striking out on their own. Texas is leading the charge, with independence campaigners running advertisements and sending out promotional material encouraging others to get on board. The Texas state GOP included a statement of support for an independence referendum in this year's Legislative Priorities and Platform document. There are similar movements afoot in California, New Hampshire, Alaska, Florida, and Louisiana, so this clearly isn't just a "red state" phenomenon. 

When you consider the idea of a state seceding, there are really three critical questions that need to be addressed:

1) Would the majority of a state WANT to secede?

2) Would the rest of the United States try to stop them?

3) What would happen after the secession?

First of all, would the majority of any state WANT to secede? RIGHT NOW, that seems highly doubtful. After all, it is a very radical step with a lot of disadvantages and uncertainty attached to it.

Right off the bat, it would mean giving up Medicare and Social Security. Also, it would mean no more federal funds, no more disaster relief, and no more protection from the US military. Additionally, there would be some enormous question marks that start with, “Would there be a war between the seceding state and the United States?” Would citizens of the new state be able to visit the US or retain property there? Would traffic and trade between the United States and the seceding state happen at all? Despite the political polarization we have in the United States, it feels unlikely that many people would be willing to go through all of this to secede.

Could that calculus change? Absolutely, and there are a couple of obvious possibilities that could do it.

The first would be something approximating a new civil war. That might mean armies fighting or it could mean terroristic and partisan violence so bad that people find it intolerable. Happily, we’re nowhere near that point yet, although it’s certainly possible to predict scenarios that could kick off that kind of fighting.

Additionally, having the United States effectively go bankrupt, which would probably consist of the currency being inflated until it was nearly worthless could do the trick. If that were to happen, government funding would either stop or be paid out in dollars so inflated they’d be the equivalent of toilet paper. A state that became a new nation would no longer care about federal funds in that situation and MIGHT be able to bow out of that mess. “Hey, that debt is owed by the United States, not us. We’re a new nation with a new currency and no debts.”

Next, we have to consider whether the United States would try to stop a state or group of states from seceding. Certainly, we did during the Civil War, but today? It’s harder to imagine.

Let’s say California seceded tomorrow. The attitude many Americans would have (myself included) is, “good riddance.” Would we really bomb the Golden Gate Bridge? Send troops in to subdue Oakland block by block? Would we be good with say killing 40 or 50 thousand former Americans to retake Los Angeles while all of it plays out on TV and YouTube? It’s bad enough to see those scenes from overseas, but many Americans would have visited whatever state broke away and could very well have friends and family there.

It seems almost inconceivable, but our ancestors faced a similar choice and chose to fight. If we were gambling on whether the United States would invade and subjugate a state that chose to leave today, the smart money would probably be on “no,” but that’s one of those situations where we wouldn’t really know what would happen until it was in front of us.

Yet and still, let’s say a state or a group of states (maybe California, Oregon, and Washington or perhaps Texas, Louisiana & Oklahoma) decided to secede and there was no war. Now what? Well, that’s when things get extremely complicated.

There are often blue cities in red states and red rural areas in blue states. Do those people move? Would Americans be allowed to move into the new states? How does that likely population shift play out? Those states would also need to come up with governing documents, create currencies, and build militaries. They’d also have to deal with foreign policy questions.

For example, what if Mexico decided those states looked weak and invaded? Could they defend themselves? Would the US sell them weapons, defend them, or just say, “If you wanted our help, you shouldn’t have left.” Concerning foreign policy, what if China or Russia offered military help? What would be the reaction if divisions of foreign troops set up bases on what used to be US soil?

Speaking of the United States, would they still trade with the breakaway states or would they, perhaps understandably, prefer to cut them off from US markets since they left? What about the American power grid? What about water rights? The Mississippi River runs through a number of states before it gets to Louisiana. California needs water that it gets from the Colorado River. Texas needs the water in the Rio Grande. What if those rivers were dammed or so much water was taken upstream that very little flowed through to the new nation-states?  

Then there’s the question of nuclear weapons. Texas, Louisiana, and Washington all have nuclear weapons stored there. The United States would INSIST on getting them and those new nations would want to keep those nuclear weapons for exactly the same reason; holding nukes would guarantee the security of the breakaway states. It would be very easy to see this become a huge bone of contention for a long time.

When you think about this issue in these terms, it becomes clear this is a much bigger issue than, “We want to get away from those socialists” on the Right and/or “We don’t want to be in the same country as those MAGA freaks” on the Left. Secession would be a risky, difficult, unpredictable exercise from start to finish.

Maybe our country will get so deep in debt over the next few decades or so mired in a brutal civil war that staying in the United States is just as big a risk as setting up a new nation elsewhere, but at the moment, it doesn’t seem like a realistic option. 

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