I'm one of what I assume to be millions of Americans who do not understand economics very well or at all on a national scale. Personally, I manage my resources exactly as I wish our tax dollars to be managed - I don't spend more than I make; I have savings for emergencies; I have no debt that cannot be paid in full when it becomes due, I give to worthy and charitable causes and I pay my taxes (somewhat begrudgingly). The difference is, I control how my money is spent. I can't control how the government spends my taxes, though if I and millions like me could, some of our debt problem might be reduced. As long as politicians have other people's money at their disposal nothing but a free-for-all exists, and government malfeasance brings us to exactly where we are - very possibly on the brink of war.
Yeah, that's the rub. How do you get people to vote against Santa Claus? How many times during Covid has the government used the word "free?" Or "federal stimulus money" by the billions and trillions? Listening to Joe Biden, we can just spend our way to wealth, no need to limit federal spending. As a nation we're hoping that the world treats us like the feds did with the big banks during the housing bubble, because we're "too big to fail."
Why doesn't he consider the possibility of a return to a federal system where states are relatively independent, and the blue states suffer the consequences of their actions and red states continue to have relative peace and prosperity. I don't see conflict as inevitable, just separation.
The book wasn't about the United States per se, it was about the conditions that led to nations rising and falling. I'm sure he wouldn't discount the possibility of the United States splitting up in the 6th stage.
If you mean that in more of a "Federalism" sort of way, the book wasn't really about that, although I think it would certainly help the situation and could end being part of a future solution to the dilemma the country is in.
very interesting, but i argue this point with my friends...if we have a civil war...what sides are there? is it party cultists against the other party cultists....is it civilians vs government forces? people vs politicians? neighbor literally shooting neighbor? it wont be like the first civil war, i doubt there will be uniforms and battlefields...it will be terrorism and assassinations. i fear for the world we will leave our children and grandchildren.
another way to see if a country will fail is how they treat their offspring. we used to do things so our childrens lives would be easier, now we sell our childrens future for wealth/prosperity for us today.
I think you are right and I think we are already seeing a preview in the Democrat run cities in this country. I expect 'the rest of us' to elect a more constitutional government going forward. I expect the cities to suffer violence and poverty because that is what they stand for. I think everyone wins when the cities snuff themselves out.
In one such city, the sewage management system failed this weekend causing raw sewage to be dumped in water bodies where people fish. The failure of cities cannot be ignored. They do not educate their children. They eschew morality. Their 'shared services' make people sick. The problem will solve itself.
Interesting insights. Read the “299 Days” 10-book series and most of what is described, from a real person working in Washington State gov’t, has been happening across America for the past 12 years. The series is about what happens to people during the 299 days following the partial collapse of the U.S. economy. I agree we are the closest we’ve faced since the CW1.0.
Another good book to read is “Field of Blood”, which is from the POV of America’s first Clerk of the Congress, and details the major internal battles in U.S. Congress leading up to the first civil war. As is known to those who bother to read history, democrats have always been America’s bullies, our racists and more anti-America than any foreign aggressors.
Well, I think the 60s were much closer. The Assassinations of President John F. Kennedy, his brother Bobby, Martin Luther King, and Malcolm X; the Watts, Detroit, and Newark Riots; the Cuban Missile Crisis. In May of 1970, four Kent State students were killed during a protest against the US invasion of Cambodia.
Imagine if we had cable news in the 60s? 7x24 images from Vietnam, of rioting in the cities, and violence and mayhem that washed over the nation?
I don't know who actually said this, but there is a quote that reads: "A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters realize they can vote themselves largess from the public coffers." We don't have a democracy, we have a representative republic, and what our representatives have been doing all of my lifetime is voting largess to voters (and themselves and patrons) from the public coffers. This cannot be sustained. We're now giving away Trillions to special interests and foreign countries who do not pay back what we give them in any meaningful way: We're paying able-bodied people to not work, we're buying drug paraphernalia for drug users who do not work, building roads and bridges in far away lands, while ours fall into disrepair, etc. Our elected leaders are no longer representatives of 'the people' but a ruling class who represent the rich and powerful who funnel money into their reelection (ha ha) bids and the ruling class returns the favor with laws. The people at the economic bottom have no hope of ever attaining the 'American Dream' through steady intelligent work, but can only stand open-mouthed as their jobs are shipped overseas and their towns dry up. Meanwhile the billionaire class gets larger and larger - the gap is enormous. Dalio is correct.
I was in the U.S. Air Force for 10 1/2 years, the U.S. Air Force Reserves for two years while going to college when the GI Bill ran out. Then I was in the Federal Civil Service for 2 1/2 years, while accompanying my active duty husband overseas. For my fifteen years of service to my country, I basically got a couple of hundred dollars for retirement (Civil Service position paid $5.50 an hour for a GS-4 medical transcription job in the U.S.A.F. hospital) so there was never any money to save out of paychecks. With half a college degree I never earned more than $8.00 an hour when minimum wage here in Florida was magically raised to $8.50/hr. and I was told to stay home because hospital medical work was "seasonal." It had never been "seasonal" before. (Thanks Mr. (now Sen.) Rick Scott.) Get real. My rent was $700.00 per month here in 1997. I don't know who I have been a slave to and providing oodles of worth to in this life, but now, after the last 20 years, I am sitting here in a 40 year old mobile home and it belongs to me and the termites.
Don't believe any of this. We live in the best of times. A very small group of antisocial people commit most of the crimes and their actions fill the 24-hour news cycle. For most of us, the American Dream is alive and well.
My wife and I bought a home the year we were married. Like my father before me, I bought when most were selling (due to interest rates in my case) and refinanced a couple times. We managed on one income -- just like my dad -- and somehow paid our children's tuition and board.
Neither my father nor my mother graduated high school.
Let's tap the breaks on the end-of-the-world nonsense. The only 'revolution' happening in this country is a turnover of political fortunes -- something that has been happening since Federalists and Whigs dominated national politics.
It's not hard to imagine how a hedge fund manager might benefit from igniting fear. Not hard at all.
you live in a very different world than the rest of us. go ahead, put your head in the sand, the rest of us see the writing on the walls, we are a nation in decay.
Sorry, but I don't believe you that are. (OTOH, that is actually my undergrad degree.) If you were, you'd consider what deToqueville said about what happens when the people in a democracy decide to vote themselves money from the Treasury. Plus, you'd be stunned by the speed of the increase in our national debt over the past 20 years. How do you propose the government fund discretionary spending when entitlement payments and service on the debt reach or exceed 100% of tax revenue? If you get a new credit card to pay the minimums on your existing maxed out credit cards, that works until your credit is exhausted. Who will buy T-bills at auction if they are downgraded to junk status? Or, at what rate of interest? Why do you think the US government is interested in crypto? What happens when the Dollar is no longer the world's reserve currency? I look at CA, the richest state in the US, and how they try to nationalize their state's debts. Every crisis requires a massive infusion of federal dollars, the reason why they will push like hell to get rid of the electoral college. IMO, civil war becomes likely when the people in flyover country decide they don't want to be ruled by the coastal elites. As a student of history, you should recognize the battle cry "Taxation without representation." I actually wish you were right, that the ride will never stop, that the US can print money indefinitely and the world will keep trading goods and services in exchange and the bubble doesn't burst.
A student of history would not think we have a democracy. We have a republic. The founding fathers only gave voice to the unwashed masses via the House of Representatives. The House would reflect the whims of the masses and be purged every two years. The rest of government would be selected by professional selectors.
And how has that worked out for us? Did you not read Diallo's first 4 steps? They describe all too well how we got where we are from where we began. I agree with Wheelhorseman; flyover country will get tired of the craziness of the coasts, and I fear that will come soon. Maybe not this year or next, but in my lifetime I expect.
Your nitpicking about "democracy/republic" is a refrain I see too often online. It matters not what you call it, Diallo has put a finger on the situation. It does not take much analysis to see that our Republic has been bent towards outright Democracy year after year. Turning it back may only be possible with violence.
I suspect you live in a Blue coastal state (or possibly IL), and have not had many conversations with "flyover country" people.
I don't know how old you are, but I am going to suggest that you not worry about the things you cannot control and focus on the things you can. No one likes paying taxes. No one likes it when the other guy gets an unfair advantage. BUT most of us -- and I'm not rich -- live very comfortable lives with little fear of violence.
You should know that brothers of my friends were getting killed in Vietnam when I was in grade school. If the bomb didn't kill us, acid rain would. We suffered double digit inflation, gas lines, and even and odd days to buy gas.
I remember feeling just like you do. I remember one day telling my dad that I better buy a home before I couldn't afford one. He told me to relax. It was just a bubble. Put my money in the bank and wait for it to burst. He was right. All of my life, I was warned life, I was told I would never collect Social Security. Not a problem.
I was in a grocery store last spring. The cashier said, "I wish I went to high school in the 60s -- no lockdowns, no masks, proms..." When she paused, I finished, "Unless you got drafted and sent to Vietnam when you graduated, right?"
Get yourself a california king size waterbed, flannel sheets, a fleece blanket, a heavy comforter, some nice pillows, and a 75" TV. Put an antenna on your roof and fall asleep to programming designed to entertain not preach. Take a little time to appreciate the fact that you were born in a place where all of this is possible.
Sweet dreams.
PS My oldest is five years out of school and already makes more than I do.
Your personal story is part of the "small picture." Ask 100 people you know and most might feel the same. But even those hundred are a flyspeck on the macroeconomic picture that is referenced in this story. Drive 20 miles and ask 100 people, and the answers might be completely different. Your view is a common human blind spot: my life is good, everybody's must be, too. You clearly have been cautious and lucky. I know many who have never owned their own home in their entire lives, some in my own family. Others have lived carefully, and now have a comfortable retirement. Success is by no means universal when the government is fiscally irresponsible, regardless of how careful individuals may be.
I do plenty. I married a principled woman. Earned enough money to allow her to stay home to raise my children. I paid for their education. I helped them develop values. I slept in a tent for six consecutive years as my youngest earned his Eagle Scout rank. I did plenty. I do not need to blow up an abortion clinic or drive a truck into Ottawa to contribute to society. I have certainly done more than post some words to a blog.
I'm one of what I assume to be millions of Americans who do not understand economics very well or at all on a national scale. Personally, I manage my resources exactly as I wish our tax dollars to be managed - I don't spend more than I make; I have savings for emergencies; I have no debt that cannot be paid in full when it becomes due, I give to worthy and charitable causes and I pay my taxes (somewhat begrudgingly). The difference is, I control how my money is spent. I can't control how the government spends my taxes, though if I and millions like me could, some of our debt problem might be reduced. As long as politicians have other people's money at their disposal nothing but a free-for-all exists, and government malfeasance brings us to exactly where we are - very possibly on the brink of war.
Yeah, that's the rub. How do you get people to vote against Santa Claus? How many times during Covid has the government used the word "free?" Or "federal stimulus money" by the billions and trillions? Listening to Joe Biden, we can just spend our way to wealth, no need to limit federal spending. As a nation we're hoping that the world treats us like the feds did with the big banks during the housing bubble, because we're "too big to fail."
Why doesn't he consider the possibility of a return to a federal system where states are relatively independent, and the blue states suffer the consequences of their actions and red states continue to have relative peace and prosperity. I don't see conflict as inevitable, just separation.
The book wasn't about the United States per se, it was about the conditions that led to nations rising and falling. I'm sure he wouldn't discount the possibility of the United States splitting up in the 6th stage.
If you mean that in more of a "Federalism" sort of way, the book wasn't really about that, although I think it would certainly help the situation and could end being part of a future solution to the dilemma the country is in.
"it is possible we could avert this whole disaster. We’d just need a responsible government willing to do wildly unpopular things" i.e. Donald Trump
very interesting, but i argue this point with my friends...if we have a civil war...what sides are there? is it party cultists against the other party cultists....is it civilians vs government forces? people vs politicians? neighbor literally shooting neighbor? it wont be like the first civil war, i doubt there will be uniforms and battlefields...it will be terrorism and assassinations. i fear for the world we will leave our children and grandchildren.
another way to see if a country will fail is how they treat their offspring. we used to do things so our childrens lives would be easier, now we sell our childrens future for wealth/prosperity for us today.
I think you are right and I think we are already seeing a preview in the Democrat run cities in this country. I expect 'the rest of us' to elect a more constitutional government going forward. I expect the cities to suffer violence and poverty because that is what they stand for. I think everyone wins when the cities snuff themselves out.
In one such city, the sewage management system failed this weekend causing raw sewage to be dumped in water bodies where people fish. The failure of cities cannot be ignored. They do not educate their children. They eschew morality. Their 'shared services' make people sick. The problem will solve itself.
We're already two thirds for Trump and one third for the regime, and the two thirds got all the guns. Civil war? nah I don't think so?
Interesting insights. Read the “299 Days” 10-book series and most of what is described, from a real person working in Washington State gov’t, has been happening across America for the past 12 years. The series is about what happens to people during the 299 days following the partial collapse of the U.S. economy. I agree we are the closest we’ve faced since the CW1.0.
Another good book to read is “Field of Blood”, which is from the POV of America’s first Clerk of the Congress, and details the major internal battles in U.S. Congress leading up to the first civil war. As is known to those who bother to read history, democrats have always been America’s bullies, our racists and more anti-America than any foreign aggressors.
Well, I think the 60s were much closer. The Assassinations of President John F. Kennedy, his brother Bobby, Martin Luther King, and Malcolm X; the Watts, Detroit, and Newark Riots; the Cuban Missile Crisis. In May of 1970, four Kent State students were killed during a protest against the US invasion of Cambodia.
Imagine if we had cable news in the 60s? 7x24 images from Vietnam, of rioting in the cities, and violence and mayhem that washed over the nation?
I don't know who actually said this, but there is a quote that reads: "A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters realize they can vote themselves largess from the public coffers." We don't have a democracy, we have a representative republic, and what our representatives have been doing all of my lifetime is voting largess to voters (and themselves and patrons) from the public coffers. This cannot be sustained. We're now giving away Trillions to special interests and foreign countries who do not pay back what we give them in any meaningful way: We're paying able-bodied people to not work, we're buying drug paraphernalia for drug users who do not work, building roads and bridges in far away lands, while ours fall into disrepair, etc. Our elected leaders are no longer representatives of 'the people' but a ruling class who represent the rich and powerful who funnel money into their reelection (ha ha) bids and the ruling class returns the favor with laws. The people at the economic bottom have no hope of ever attaining the 'American Dream' through steady intelligent work, but can only stand open-mouthed as their jobs are shipped overseas and their towns dry up. Meanwhile the billionaire class gets larger and larger - the gap is enormous. Dalio is correct.
Civil War, go after the media first.
Very interesting read.
I was in the U.S. Air Force for 10 1/2 years, the U.S. Air Force Reserves for two years while going to college when the GI Bill ran out. Then I was in the Federal Civil Service for 2 1/2 years, while accompanying my active duty husband overseas. For my fifteen years of service to my country, I basically got a couple of hundred dollars for retirement (Civil Service position paid $5.50 an hour for a GS-4 medical transcription job in the U.S.A.F. hospital) so there was never any money to save out of paychecks. With half a college degree I never earned more than $8.00 an hour when minimum wage here in Florida was magically raised to $8.50/hr. and I was told to stay home because hospital medical work was "seasonal." It had never been "seasonal" before. (Thanks Mr. (now Sen.) Rick Scott.) Get real. My rent was $700.00 per month here in 1997. I don't know who I have been a slave to and providing oodles of worth to in this life, but now, after the last 20 years, I am sitting here in a 40 year old mobile home and it belongs to me and the termites.
Why are you telling us this?
This is simply the tytler cycle writ in detail.
Everyone keeps pointing to a person to save our republic.
That wont happen. Unless that one person is given dictatorial powers, which wont happen, it will never be enough to save the Republic.
Follow the constitution.
Before, after.
No federal control of money.
No debt based systems to thwart the constitution. (Thanks Woodrow Wilson).
There is going to be a starving time coming.
And Dalio is correct.
When entire armies of people begin to starve, they will forage. Soon you will see rural city states after the collapse.
And where America goes, so goes the world.
Mistah Kurtz-he dead
A penny for the Old Guy
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.
Don't believe any of this. We live in the best of times. A very small group of antisocial people commit most of the crimes and their actions fill the 24-hour news cycle. For most of us, the American Dream is alive and well.
My wife and I bought a home the year we were married. Like my father before me, I bought when most were selling (due to interest rates in my case) and refinanced a couple times. We managed on one income -- just like my dad -- and somehow paid our children's tuition and board.
Neither my father nor my mother graduated high school.
Let's tap the breaks on the end-of-the-world nonsense. The only 'revolution' happening in this country is a turnover of political fortunes -- something that has been happening since Federalists and Whigs dominated national politics.
It's not hard to imagine how a hedge fund manager might benefit from igniting fear. Not hard at all.
you live in a very different world than the rest of us. go ahead, put your head in the sand, the rest of us see the writing on the walls, we are a nation in decay.
I am a student of history. That gives me a different perspective.
Sorry, but I don't believe you that are. (OTOH, that is actually my undergrad degree.) If you were, you'd consider what deToqueville said about what happens when the people in a democracy decide to vote themselves money from the Treasury. Plus, you'd be stunned by the speed of the increase in our national debt over the past 20 years. How do you propose the government fund discretionary spending when entitlement payments and service on the debt reach or exceed 100% of tax revenue? If you get a new credit card to pay the minimums on your existing maxed out credit cards, that works until your credit is exhausted. Who will buy T-bills at auction if they are downgraded to junk status? Or, at what rate of interest? Why do you think the US government is interested in crypto? What happens when the Dollar is no longer the world's reserve currency? I look at CA, the richest state in the US, and how they try to nationalize their state's debts. Every crisis requires a massive infusion of federal dollars, the reason why they will push like hell to get rid of the electoral college. IMO, civil war becomes likely when the people in flyover country decide they don't want to be ruled by the coastal elites. As a student of history, you should recognize the battle cry "Taxation without representation." I actually wish you were right, that the ride will never stop, that the US can print money indefinitely and the world will keep trading goods and services in exchange and the bubble doesn't burst.
A student of history would not think we have a democracy. We have a republic. The founding fathers only gave voice to the unwashed masses via the House of Representatives. The House would reflect the whims of the masses and be purged every two years. The rest of government would be selected by professional selectors.
And how has that worked out for us? Did you not read Diallo's first 4 steps? They describe all too well how we got where we are from where we began. I agree with Wheelhorseman; flyover country will get tired of the craziness of the coasts, and I fear that will come soon. Maybe not this year or next, but in my lifetime I expect.
Your nitpicking about "democracy/republic" is a refrain I see too often online. It matters not what you call it, Diallo has put a finger on the situation. It does not take much analysis to see that our Republic has been bent towards outright Democracy year after year. Turning it back may only be possible with violence.
I suspect you live in a Blue coastal state (or possibly IL), and have not had many conversations with "flyover country" people.
I don't know how old you are, but I am going to suggest that you not worry about the things you cannot control and focus on the things you can. No one likes paying taxes. No one likes it when the other guy gets an unfair advantage. BUT most of us -- and I'm not rich -- live very comfortable lives with little fear of violence.
You should know that brothers of my friends were getting killed in Vietnam when I was in grade school. If the bomb didn't kill us, acid rain would. We suffered double digit inflation, gas lines, and even and odd days to buy gas.
I remember feeling just like you do. I remember one day telling my dad that I better buy a home before I couldn't afford one. He told me to relax. It was just a bubble. Put my money in the bank and wait for it to burst. He was right. All of my life, I was warned life, I was told I would never collect Social Security. Not a problem.
I was in a grocery store last spring. The cashier said, "I wish I went to high school in the 60s -- no lockdowns, no masks, proms..." When she paused, I finished, "Unless you got drafted and sent to Vietnam when you graduated, right?"
Get yourself a california king size waterbed, flannel sheets, a fleece blanket, a heavy comforter, some nice pillows, and a 75" TV. Put an antenna on your roof and fall asleep to programming designed to entertain not preach. Take a little time to appreciate the fact that you were born in a place where all of this is possible.
Sweet dreams.
PS My oldest is five years out of school and already makes more than I do.
Your personal story is part of the "small picture." Ask 100 people you know and most might feel the same. But even those hundred are a flyspeck on the macroeconomic picture that is referenced in this story. Drive 20 miles and ask 100 people, and the answers might be completely different. Your view is a common human blind spot: my life is good, everybody's must be, too. You clearly have been cautious and lucky. I know many who have never owned their own home in their entire lives, some in my own family. Others have lived carefully, and now have a comfortable retirement. Success is by no means universal when the government is fiscally irresponsible, regardless of how careful individuals may be.
Being Pollyanna is not any kind of solution.
Your "do nothing"attitude is quite scary and dangerous..
I do plenty. I married a principled woman. Earned enough money to allow her to stay home to raise my children. I paid for their education. I helped them develop values. I slept in a tent for six consecutive years as my youngest earned his Eagle Scout rank. I did plenty. I do not need to blow up an abortion clinic or drive a truck into Ottawa to contribute to society. I have certainly done more than post some words to a blog.